Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.463402 3.357367 4.624327 6.615150 9.791161 1.490326e+01 2.431654e+01
2025-03-23 1.616256 2.530217 4.091355 7.173887 13.746555 2.903974e+01 7.579812e+01
2025-03-30 1.128843 1.969475 3.641138 7.679325 19.114034 5.937269e+01 3.100632e+02
2025-04-06 0.767406 1.448059 2.964603 7.269328 22.912337 1.069196e+02 1.498428e+03
2025-04-13 0.532405 1.066510 2.367359 6.586519 25.772502 1.860278e+02 1.287943e+04
2025-04-20 0.414159 0.884523 2.147874 6.929601 35.814397 5.113371e+02 8.432424e+07
2025-04-27 0.342935 0.781232 2.083944 7.925870 57.922480 2.587018e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.290900 0.703723 2.055649 9.261138 101.656377 4.000784e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.242061 0.613393 1.926509 10.016012 163.000020 1.704618e+07 NaN
2025-05-18 0.195073 0.509027 1.675451 9.595628 210.339394 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.156519 0.416551 1.415663 8.678688 238.911382 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.135791 0.373772 1.343020 9.305705 403.998737 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.117100 0.332725 1.261378 9.884636 730.305580 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.103452 0.304077 1.222144 11.020625 1688.373444 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.091536 0.277188 1.174098 12.082362 4372.195248 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.078251 0.240454 1.045524 11.518221 7146.003036 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066506 0.206078 0.909639 10.429179 9242.539452 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059785 0.189407 0.870536 11.139686 32911.557244 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055412 0.180708 0.876327 13.057637 596496.128955 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051820 0.174014 0.891874 15.679036 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047556 0.162953 0.868293 17.239677 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042425 0.146482 0.792160 16.494585 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.037472 0.129571 0.702710 14.768073 NaN NaN NaN